The Pros Come Around To My Thinking

Back before Valentines Day I said:

A lot of these caucus states - Kansas, Nebraska, Nevada (he lost but got more delegates) - are traditional Republican states. He may not win many or even any of them, but he's got a ground game there. The Gopper nominee is will have to pay attention to them. Spend money and spend time there. That will limit his time in Ohio, Penn, and Florida.

Over at TNR today, Noam Scheiber wonders if Obama could win in Kansas.

In some ways I guess I'm tooting my own horn here but Scheiber is also looking at it from another perspective. McCain and his surrogates have taken actions that might hurt them in Kansas. Scheiber points out that Hillary and Obama poll the same against McCain in Kansas. This is telling of the Goppers general weakness and some changing dynamics in the state in general. To my way of thinking this is a big advantage for Obama though with his post-identity politics message.

I still question how many of the traditional Gopper states he (or she) can win this time around but McCain will not be able to take all of them for granted this fall.