Useless Study

A new study suggests that the chances of a major quake in California in the next 3 decades is 99% or more.

It also says there is at least a 90% chance that the sky is blue.

Give me a break. Of course there's a very good chance of a major earthquake in the next 30 years. Let's look at the history of California earthquakes.

Oct 15, 1979: Imperial Valley, Mag = 6.5, $0.5M in damage
May 25, 1980: Mammoth Lakes, 6.2
May 25, 1980: Mammoth Lakes, 6.0 (this is a second quake)
Nov 8, 1980: West of Eureka, Mag = 7.4, 6 injured; $2m in damages
Apr 24, 1984: Morgan Hill, Magnitude = 6.2, $8m in damage
Jul 21, 1986: Chalfant Valley, Mag = 6.4
Oct 1, 1987: Whittier Narrows. Mag = 6.0, 8 dead, $358M in damages
Nov 24, 1987: Superstition Hills, Mag = 6.2
Nov 24, 1987: Superstition Hills, Mag = 6.6
Oct 17, 1989: Loma Prieta, Mag = 6.9, 63 dead, $6B in damages
Apr 25, 1992: Cape Mendocino, Mag = 7.2 with two 6.6 aftershocks
Jun 28, 1992: Big Bear, Mag = 6.5, 1 dead, $91.1M in damage
Jun 28, 1992: Landers, Mag = 7.3
Aug 16, 1991: Offshore. Mag = 6.3
Aug 17, 1991: Offshore. Mag = 6.2
Aug 17, 1991: Offshore, 100 miles NW of Eureka. Mag = 7.0.
Jan 17, 1994: Northridge, Magnitude = 6.7, 57 dead, $40B in damage
Sep 1, 1994: Offshore, 70 miles west of Cape Mendocino, Mag = 7.0
Oct 16, 1999: Bullion Mountains, Mag = 7.1

That's 18 quakes with a 6.0 magnitude or greater. Even the history on this web site isn't 100% correct the point remains. Predicting a major quake in California over a 30 year period is no harder to do than predicting the sun will rise in the east.