Segregating By Ideology

One thing that this election cycle has proved to me is that as a country we have segregated ourselves into out own ideological camps. We see and hear things in those groups and think that's what everyone else thinks too.

From the opposite poltical ideology camp, I can site three examples of people that are 100% convinced that McCain is going to win the election on Tuesday. Two are from the Republican dominated western suburbs, Palatine and Wheaton respectively. The third is a story from a friend that was stationed in Kuwait for a year.

The Palatine guy told me at work Friday that he's sure people are seeing the "tax issue" and "underfunded pensions" and that McCain was going to pull out the victory.

The Wheaton guy I saw just after the primaries. He is definitely and proudly a Religious Right voter. He doesn't like McCain much, thinks Palin is an up and coming star and there is just no way the nation will vote for Obama. This is the same guy that has told me lacrosse is sweeping the nation. They play it at Wheaton College.

Tom R. who spent his year of duty in Kuwait told me that when McCain wrapped up the nomination that "all the guys in Kuwait" essentially thought the election was over that day. McCain was a lock.

The polls just aren't showing that. Fivethirtyeight to site just one. For various reasons though these facts are ignored or believed to be wrong. It is the bubble of the ideological segregation that brings it around. That and some true belief on the part of some. I mean if God is on your side how can you lose. Right?

Let's stipulate though that this is not a phenomenon of the Right. Personally I live in a neighborhood that is predominantly white, liberal, and is going to vote BIG for Obama. My views are clearly influenced by who I see and talk to as well. A friend throwing an election night party is predicting Obama wins 40 states! 538 has him between 24 and 28 states. Personally I think he gets about 31 or 32 states. Either way it is an electoral college land slide and he'll win the popular vote by 5% to 6%.

I think the segregation is both learned and chosen. Growing up we learn our values from our parents and those around us. Children rely on their parents to teach them a great many lessons. Don't touch a hot stove. Don't dive into the shallow end of the pool. Go to church. Republicans are strong on defense/warmongers. Democrats help the average guy / are tax and spenders. All these lessons stick with you in life. As you get older it is scary to see yourself develop into your parents.

When we choose where we live we choose to live in areas that we are comfortable in. Part of that comfort comes from our learned values. We often choose areas that reflect those values and lifestyles. It is self reinforcing.

Sometimes people break free of that. I grew up in lily white DuPage county and thought of myself as a Republican a great deal of my life. Growing up I thought I would end up married living in a house with a two car garage and mowing the lawn on weekends. Now I can't even fathom the concept. I choose to live in a young, urban area where lifestyles include lots of night life and people are more free wheeling and have a live and let live attitude towards other's social lives. I think green things are the responsibility of a park district and I'm OK street parking. Mostly I don't want to drive anyway.

Remember on Friday I mentioned that a coworker from GA thinks McCain is going to clean up in Georgia. I think he is right in as much as I think McCain will win GA. I suspect it won't be quite the blow out he's thinking it will be. But, hey, I could be wrong. McCain might take the state by 10% points. Then again, Obama might win GA. If he does he'll run away with the election. Then again, McCain could win the election this Tuesday. I don't think so.