Last Night

Damn!

Naturally, I’m disappointed. It seems to me that McCain is Obama’s Achilles’ heel. One substantial portion of Obama’s appeal is to independent and cross over voters. People that are more conservative than Obama but are fed up with the bullshit of the current Goppers. McCain, although very, very conservative, has the rep of a reformer and a maverick Republican. Obama and McCain are fighting for the same independents. With NH allowing people to register at the polls and select a Gopper or Democratic ballot at the poll those independents could make their choice at the last minute. With polls showing Obama with a double digit lead and with reports of record levels of turn out its possible that a lot of people who might have been leaning towards Obama chose to vote for McCain.

The scarier explanation is the Bradley Effect This suggests that white people tell pollsters that they will vote for a non-white candidate but once behind the voting curtain they vote for the white candidate. The Bradley Effect, if in play, wouldn’t show up in Iowa where caucus goers have to vote in the open. Even if the outcome is an Obama loss let’s hope the Bradley Effect is not the cause.

All that said let me not take away anything from Hillary. She had a good debate Saturday night. She made her case to the voters of NH and they responded. I’ve said again and again she is not my first choice but I do believe she would make a good president.

It is important to note that Obama and Clinton are virtually tied in delegates for the convention. Obama is actually up by one. And I do agree with the talking heads that are saying that a contested primary season, as opposed to a coronation of any one candidate, is better for everyone.