Random Baseball

numbering has been introduced to keep the randoms more distinct

1. On Sunday, 07/20, Ryan Dempster got his first road win of the year. The article points out it is his first road win since 2006, but for the past several years he's been a reliever/closer. You don't get a lot wins in that position. In other firsts from Sunday, Aaron Miles, hit his first walk off home run of his career, a grand slam!
   
   
2. On that same Sunday at The Full Shilling, a bar within the shadow of Wrigley Field, an older guy was making a loud argument about how good Vladimir Guerrero is. In a bar full of Cubs fans (and one, silent Cardinals fan) he was loudly expressing the opinion that Guerrero is way better than home town favorite Derek Lee. Mostly he was ignored but it made me wonder, was the old guy on to something. So, while I stare at my computer waiting for some programs to end I decided to compare some numbers.
   
   Current Stats:
   Lee: 395 At Bats, 64 Runs, 59 RBIs, .501 SLG, 15 HRs
   Guerrero: 341 At Bats, 52 Runs, 53 RBIs, .496 SLG, 17 HRs
   
   Career Yearly Average (based on 162 Games played)
   Lee: 571 At Bats, 90 Runs, 87 RBIs, .502 SLG
   
   Guerrero: 613 At Bats, 104 Runs, 117 RBIs, .575 SLG
   
   I'm not real familiar with advanced stats, but lets just do a simple runs produced per at bat for each player. Vlad has 6417 career at bats. He has 1230 RBIs and scored 1093 times. That's 2323 runs which we will subtract out his 382 career homers since they are counted in both numbers and we get 1941 runs produced. Vlad has produced 1 run for every 3.31 plate appearances over his career. Working the numbers for this season you get 1 run every 3.86 at bats.
   
   With Lee's 253 career dingers he has produced 1 run for every 3.81 at bats. This year he's producing a run every 3.66 at bats.
   
   Baseball being a team sport, scoring runs and producing RBIs is very dependent on your teammates. If the guys in front of you aren't getting on base you aren't going to produce many RBIs. Similarly, if the players behind you don't get hits you aren't going to touch home plate all that often. That's why people start to resort to more advanced stats like VORP.
   
   But going with these numbers it's obvious that for his career Vlad has been the more productive offensive player. And he's been better by a fair margine. This year, however, it looks like you want Lee in your line up.
   
   
3. Chicago baseball writer Jerome Holtzman died at the age of 81. He is widely credited with inventing the Save statistic.
   
   
4. Not that I would ever question Tony LaRussa, Super Genius^TM, but when I started watching the Cards/Brewers game on 07/22 it was the bottom of the 7th and the Cards were up 3-1. When the Cards took the field in the top of the 8th Kyle Lohse was clearly tired and struggling. His slider was low and outside to the point of being wild, his curve had no snap and his fastball had no movement. After a couple of batters the broadcast showed a graphic that Lohse had thrown 23 pitches in the 7th. He hadn't been over 11 in any of the previous innings. Tony left him in and the Brewers tied the game. McClellan gave up a one run homer in the 9th to lose the game. But I don't blame him. I know they are trying to save their bullpen for later in the week, but they were tied in the standings with Milwaukee and 2 games behind the division leading Cubs. Some games you HAVE TO WIN.
   
   
5. Steve Bartman, infamous for supposedly interfering with a play during the Cubs' 2003 playoffs, is refusing an offer of $25,000 cash to sign a single autograph of the play. I don't for one moment think this play changed the outcome of that game. Why did Gonzales let the ball go between his legs? Why didn't some one go talk to the rookie pitcher? Why didn't Dusty change pitchers... oh, never mind, he's an idiot. But Bartman took all the heat. He had Alou and Baker criticizing him in press conferences. I understand he received death threats. It appears that he blames himself on some level for the loss. Yet despite the offer of a house down payment he's a class act that won't cash in on the moment. (NOTE: Obviously, at some point the offer could become big enough that he has to take it.)