Monday, March 19, 2007

How Bad

Rolling Stone convened some Middle East experts to discuss the future of Iraq. Of the panelists I'm familiar with they are not the most bipartisan group you are ever going to meet. Not surprising from Rolling Stone. But each is an expert on the area. Their opinions cannot be dismissed out of hand.

I find that I agree with them on most points. First, we've lost the war in Iraq. It may have been winnable at the beginning, with good, compentent leadership. I don't think it is now. One says that we couldn't win with 1,000,000 men in theater. I'm not sure I agree there either but the key is that we are not going to send 1,000,000. We're not going to make it to 200,000.

I do we are leaving. When we leave there will be a genocide in Iraq. The Sunni minority will be all but wiped out. And some of that blood will be on America's hands too. We didn't start the centuries old fued but we lit the fuse with the overthrow of Saddam. How far the war will spread when we leave is questionable. With the exception of Richard Clarke the guys interviewed by Rolling Stone think it will spread wide and far. That is why I think we have to pull back to the borders and try to contain the conflict to Iraq. Just doing that won't be easy and may prove to be beyond our ability. But we can't stop the Sunni-Shi'ite war that is going to take place in Iraq. We can only hope to contain it.

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